Car Enthusiast

http://apnews.myway.com/article/20040706/D83LFTV00.html

By MARTIN CRUTSINGER

(AP) The economy appears headed for a banner year despite a springtime spike in energy prices and a...
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WASHINGTON (AP) - The economy appears headed for a banner year despite a springtime spike in energy prices and a recent increase in interest rates.

In fact, many analysts are forecasting that the overall economy, as measured by the gross domestic product, will grow by 4.6 percent or better this year, the fastest in two decades.

There were strong 4.5 percent growth rates in 1997 and 1999, when Bill Clinton was president and the country was in the midst of a record 10-year expansion.

But if this year's growth ends up a bit faster than that, it will be the best since the economy roared ahead at a 7.2 percent rate in 1984, a year when another Republican president - Ronald Reagan - was running for re-election.

"We are moving into a sweet spot for the economy with interest rates not too high, jobs coming back and business investment providing strength," said Diane Swonk, chief economist at Bank One in Chicago, who is predicting GDP growth of 4.8 percent this year.

President Bush is highlighting the improving economy at every opportunity while Democratic challenger John Kerry has focused on what he calls a middle class squeeze of rising health and tuition costs and laid-off workers forced to take lower-paying jobs.

Who will win on the all-important pocketbook issues? Economists aren't sure.

"It is unclear whether voters will remember the past year and the better jobs created during that period or the past four years," said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Economy.com. "It will be a close call and that is one of the reasons the election could be so close."

Assessing the economy at midyear, most private economists are sticking with the optimistic forecasts they had six months ago, even though inflation, driven by surging energy prices, rose higher than expected and the Federal Reserve started raising interest rates last month.

"We are looking for a darn good year despite the fact that we had a big jump in oil prices and interest rates are going up faster than people thought would occur," said David Wyss, chief economist at Standard & Poor's in New York.

Offsetting those drags on the economy has been stronger growth in Japan and China, which helps U.S. exports, better-than-expected consumer spending and much better job growth than analysts were expecting as the year began.

The economy has now created 1.5 million new jobs since last August, compared with a loss of 2.7 million jobs in the previous 29 months, when the country was struggling with a string of blows from a collapsing stock market to a recession and terrorist attacks.

Even with the 10 months of consecutive job gains, Bush is still facing a 1.2 million jobs deficit, from the last peak for employment in March 2001.

However, many analysts anticipate the economy will generate around 200,000 jobs per month over the next six months, a pace that would be enough to erase his deficit figure by the end of the year. That would enable him to escape being the only president since Herbert Hoover in the Great Depression to have lost jobs while in office.

Although the economy created only 112,000 jobs in June, after averaging 304,000 jobs for the previous three months, analysts expect strong job growth the rest of this year.

They predict the unemployment rate - stuck at 5.6 percent for most of this year - will improve gradually, to 5.3 percent by December, as a strengthening job market draws people back into the labor force.

Analysts also are optimistic about inflation in the months ahead, noting that oil prices recently retreated from peaks above $42 per barrel in June, and regular gasoline have declined from highs over $2 a gallon in late May. If the trend continues, inflation pressures will be eased.

The Bond Market Association's economic advisory committee, made up of economists from large financial institutions, is predicting that consumer prices will rise 3.1 percent for all of this year, a significant moderation from the 5.1 percent rate of increase through May.

The group projects overall GDP growth will be at a 20-year high of 4.7 percent, based in part on a belief that the Fed will keep to its pledge of moderation in future rate hikes because of the absence of inflation pressures.

Car Enthusiast

mxpxbigd285, tell me when the first signs of a recession started happening during GW's term?, and how long he had held office by that time

i3eeker

Ok, well even if Bush didn't lie, he still made a mistake, and I would like to hear him apologize to the American public and families who have lost loved ones over there for his mistake. Tony Blair has already come out and apologized to his people for going to war on faulty inteligence, it's Bushs turn.

Justin

Damn, the US saved thousands of lives by getting rid of Saddam.

Why do people forget that?

mxpxbigd285

somehow i knew it would come down to pointing the finger at democrats or republicans.

shadowmaster

Prove to me that the two parties have not divided this country. Show me where there is unity in this country amoung these two parties.

ericcantona

A poll was made in the Deep South to find reasons why President Bush was elected. The Justification that got the highest percentage was "He never reads a newspaper, just like me." I'm English and I have to say I wouldn't want a man running my Country that was either the same as or a lower Educational/Intelligence level than myself.

paulnovak50

Ther may be two parties in name only.Sometimes I believe they are in place just to keep most of the people happy. I am a Democrat not a Liberal so where is my party?
I believe in God. I believe there is something weird when both candidates belong to the "Skull & Bones". This can't be good.I will vote for Kerry!

mxpxbigd285

not once did i say that this country wasnt divided, thats the entire idea of the two-party system, two different groups with different ideals.

what i was saying is that the idea that one party is and has been trying to take the country apart is completely idiotic to even TRY to pass off as the truth.

Jimi

How about his economic ideas? Cutting taxes on offshore business, saving big businesses money? Fuck that, up the taxes offshore. Cut taxes on domestic business, allowing employers to hire more people inside the US, upping the economy. More domestic jobs = more domestic spending = better economy.

His business with Saudi Arabia. Bush is a business man who has many ties in Saudi stocks, as do they in US stocks that Bush is involved in. Saudi Arabians cause the WTC fall. Why is our leader such good friends with them, and protecting them?

Lies, lies, and more lies. Where are these weapons, why are they government officials backtracking on everything they said, blaming everything on everyone else? Because they can, that's why.

Foreign affairs: as powerful of a country as we are, we are only this powerful with our allies. If everyone is against us, then how do we win? It's like the biggest guy in a room full of people.... the biggest guy, if he has friends, is the most powerful.... but if they are all his enemies, he's going to get his ass kicked.

Superhuman

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You almost made the same comparison as me

Jimi

I'm failing to see yours. However, in the process of looking for it, I notices some other things that caught my eye.

Republican Economics: So, you're telling me that all 8 years that Clinton was in office on an economic uprise, that was due to Retard #1? As far as "Republican Economics", the only similarity is that they believe more in and work more with big business. Retard #2 is just sinking us in more and more. Typically, economy booms after war... This guy is keeping us in war that no one agrees with. He's no economist hell, he couldn't get a degree with more than a D.

Car Enthusiast

nibiru, obviously you are really a bush hater and no article or explanation will ever please you if you are referring to both bush's as retards, cause i really don't think anyone ever accused the first bush of being dumb

Car Enthusiast

as for giving tax breaks for companies who outsource, companies can not keep giving us cheap goods if your average union working wants twice as much as your average non union worker, not even compare that to foreign workers, i mean come on most of these jobs are that are getting sent over sees have been technology jobs, where you don't need paid 15 to 20 dollars an hour, and companies can't aford to pay americans that anymore, that is one area that america has become a little spoiled on, is our great pay for not very labor or intelligent intensive jobs

and anyone who thinks that the heads of companies aren't going to make money first and foremost before their employees is not smart, so make the company leaders happy and then they will pay their employess more, remember trickle down theory works!