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Just saying

Bradley Effect
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

The term Bradley effect or Wilder effect refers to an explanation advanced as the possible cause of a phenomenon which has led to inaccurate voter opinion polls in some American political campaigns between a white candidate and a non-white candidate. Specifically, there have been instances in which such elections have seen the non-white candidate significantly underperform with respect to the results predicted by pre-election polls. Researchers who have studied the issue theorize that some white voters gave inaccurate polling responses because of a fear that by stating their true preference, they might appear to others to be racially prejudiced.

The theory suggests that statistically significant numbers of white voters tell pollsters in advance of an election that they are either undecided, or likely to vote for the non-white candidate, but that those voters exhibit a different behavior when actually casting their ballots. White voters who said that they were undecided break in statistically large numbers toward the white candidate, and many of the white voters who said that they were likely to vote for the non-white candidate ultimately cast their ballot for the white candidate. This reluctance to give accurate polling answers has sometimes extended to post-election exit polls as well.

Some research has suggested that the race of the pollster conducting the interview may factor into that concern. Meanwhile, some pollsters express doubt altogether that deliberately false answers from white voters being polled has been the cause of the polling errors in question. At least one prominent researcher has suggested that with regard to pre-election polls, the discrepancy can be traced in part by the polls' failure to account for general conservative political leanings among late-deciding voters.




For the rest: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bradley_effect

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joerockhead

SO in other words, the Studies show Obama as having 48% of the votes, and McCain as having 43%, and that means 9% undecided.

But in reality, the Vote will be 82% for McCain and 3% for Obama, and 15% for better TV's from FEMA

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FattyJJ

BackdoorJesus

Well, I'm not the only one thinking the Democrats are in for an unpleasant surprise come November.

They did not pick the best candidate for their nominee and in the process dissed half of their own party; some will come back to the fold, but not enough of them, and the Bradley Effect will come into play as well.

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